منابع مشابه
Rethinking Earthquake Prediction
We re-examine and summarize what is now possible in predicting earthquakes, what might be accomplished (and hence might be possible in the next few decades) and what types of predictions appear to be inherently impossible based on our understanding of earthquakes as complex phenomena. We take predictions to involve a variety of time scales from seconds to a few decades. Earthquake warnings and ...
متن کاملEarthquake prediction : a political problem ?
Earthquake prediction is an area of research of great scientific and public fascination. The reason for this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also because earthquakes can have a large social and economic impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the sense of making deterministic predictions about the place, time, and magnitude o...
متن کاملStatistical short-term earthquake prediction.
A statistical procedure, derived from a theoretical model of fracture growth, is used to identify a foreshock sequence while it is in progress. As a predictor, the procedure reduces the average uncertainty in the rate of occurrence for a future strong earthquake by a factor of more than 1000 when compared with the Poisson rate of occurrence. About one-third of all main shocks with local magnitu...
متن کاملEPiC: Earthquake Prediction in California
Earthquake prediction has long been the holy grail for seismologists around the world. The various factors affecting earthquakes are far from being understood, and there exist no known correlations between largescale earthquake activity and periodic geological events. Nonetheless, we hope that machine learning will give us greater insight into the patterns underlying earthquake activity, even i...
متن کاملOn Earthquake Prediction in Japan
Japan's National Project for Earthquake Prediction has been conducted since 1965 without success. An earthquake prediction should be a short-term prediction based on observable physical phenomena or precursors. The main reason of no success is the failure to capture precursors. Most of the financial resources and manpower of the National Project have been devoted to strengthening the seismograp...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: pure and applied geophysics
سال: 1999
ISSN: 0033-4553,1420-9136
DOI: 10.1007/s000240050263